Apartment Construction Rules

“High End” Apartment Construction Totally Dominates, Creates Mismatch of Supply & Demand

Because that’s where the money is, on paper. But it’s not where the market is.

There are plenty of brand-new apartments to choose from, thanks to a multifamily construction boom in major cities. These apartments are in good locations. They’re nice and have everything you’d want. But for many people, rents are just too damn high. Here’s why:

In the first half of this year, 87% of the completed apartment projects with 50 or more apartments in 130 major cities in the US are considered “high end,” according to a report by RentCafé, based on Yardi Matrix data on 80,000 large-scale apartment developments. This is up from 52% of properties completed in 2012:

“High end” here means “luxurious” – a marketing position for a building. In expensive cities, projects that are not luxurious are nevertheless expensive – such as San Francisco. You have to pay a lot in rent but you might not get a lot for it. An expensive dump in San Francisco is not “high end.” It’s just expensive. In other cities, for the same amount, you can rent a luxury apartment. But that kind of “high end” in San Francisco requires princely sums of money.

This is based on Yardi Matrix’s definition and classification of the apartment market of multi-family properties of 50+ units, where “high-end” or “luxury” rental properties make up the top two categories:

“A+” and “A” buildings: Renters by choice. Attracted to the extreme upper end of the apartment market; properties generally of resort quality, clearly appealing to households capable of owning a residence, but choosing to rent, or households with substantial incomes, but without wealth. The luxury rental category primarily focuses on empty nester households, or more particularly, high net worth households. The renter-by-choice household is demanding; finishing detail and amenities included in properties appealing to this category must be of exceptional quality.

“A-” and “B+” Buildings: Lifestyle renters. The high mid-range category appeals to double-income-no-kids (“DINK”) households holding income status similar to that typically required of discretionary property positioning, but not in possession of the wealth more probably associated with the renter-by-choice rental household category. Properties holding high mid-range status typically offer excellent finishing quality, and attractive common area facilities, and typically focus on an environment providing a more social experience.

These two categories are considered “high end.” A step down and no longer “high end” is B and B-, which is for “working professionals,” such as policemen, firemen, teachers, and technical workers. Then it goes down the scale all the way to “D.” Subsidized housing is in a separate category.

These “high end” apartments are marketed to high-income people. Alas, there are not that many high-income people around. Nevertheless, in many cities, 100% of new apartment properties being complete in 2018 are “high end.”

The percentage of high-end projects has soared in cities that are not among the most expensive rental markets in the US and have hit 100% in cities such as Oklahoma City, OK, Dallas-Fort Worth, TX, Kansas City, MO, Charlotte, NC, and Philadelphia, PA.

On the other hand, in ultra-expensive markets such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Seattle, there are still projects being built that (while expensive) are not in the “high-end” category.

The list below shows the 30 largest US cities (not metros) and their high-end properties as a percent of all properties with 50+ units completed in the first half of 2018. Of these 30 cities, 16 exclusively built “high-end” properties in the first half, up from 7 cities in 2017. Texas has four cities on this list where new high-end developments accounted for 100% of all large-scale apartment completions:

City 2018
Dallas, TX 100%
Forth Worth, TX 100%
Boston, MA 100%
Houston, TX 100%
Jacksonville, FL 100%
Charlotte, NC 100%
Indianapolis, IN 100%
Columbus, OH 100%
San Jose, CA 100%
Memphis, TN 100%
Oklahoma City, OK 100%
Los Angeles, CA 100%
Chicago, IL 100%
Detroit, MI 100%
San Francisco, CA 100%
El Paso, TX 100%
Nashville, TN 92%
Washington, DC 91%
Baltimore, MD 88%
Austin, TX 88%
San Antonia, TX 86%
Philadelphia, PA 86%
New York, NY 85%
Denver, CO 83%
San Diego, CA 83%
Las Vegas 80%
Louisville, KY 80%
Portland, OR 80%
Phoenix,  AZ 78%
Seattle, WA 72%

Clearly, there is a trend among some high-income and high-wealth people to avoid the suburbs and go instead for convenience, views, short commutes to work, etc. This dynamic is spread over apartments and condos. Urban living has become cool. And these dynamics look good when the project is pitched to investors – and that’s where the money is.

But the market for high-end apartments is limited. Not that many people make enough money to be able to afford them. Flooding the market exclusively with these apartments, and not building apartments suitable for median incomes, the industry creates a mismatch of supply and demand that has been cropping up in major markets. And given the “high-end” projects underway, this mismatch will grow.

The solution is the market. These units will have to be rented out, either by the developer or by the creditors that will end up with the project if it fails. The way to fill these units is to cut rents until sufficient demand materializes. And this puts pressure on rents in lesser buildings that have to compete with these high-end units. In other words, it creates downward pressure on rents, from the top down.

It’s a lot of debt too: Multifamily mortgage debt outstanding rose to $1.3 trillion in Q2. Of this debt, 49% has been securitized, and many of those MBS have been guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Banks and thrifts own 32% of the multifamily mortgages. State and local governments, insurance companies, and other entities own the rest.

With most of the new funding going into high-end projects, creditors clearly are being charmed when these projects get pitched. On paper, one by one, they make a lot of sense. But the market might not play along.

And here are the rents, and how they’ve risen or fallen, by city, down to the neighborhood. Read… The Rental Markets in America, from Hot to Cold
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Todays Politics in America

The Feinstein/Ford Blockade: Chronology, Testimony, and Hypocrisy

This has NEVER been about finding the truth but about creating unjust and inexcusable political optics.

“It is not honorable to take mere legal advantage, when it happens to be contrary to justice.” —Thomas Jefferson (1790)

“An allegation standing alone is not necessarily sufficient to conclude that conduct occurred.”

That was the conclusion of the Democrat attorney hired to investigate domestic-violence allegations against DNC Deputy Chairman, aspiring Minnesota Attorney General, and Rep. Keith Ellison. His victim had medical records and a police report associated with her charges, and had discussed the alleged assault with others. Additionally, there is at least one other assault allegation against Ellison noted in a 2005 police report by another woman.

These charges are more serious, more recent, better documented, and more suggestive of a pattern of abuse than the unsupported, unsubstantiated, uncorroborated, and in fact refuted allegations that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh groped another teenager 36 years ago.

But Ellison’s defenders incessantly remind us that the allegations against Ellison could be false, especially the lawyer who cleared him — whose firm has given more than $500,000 to Democrat candidates.

Again, “An allegation standing alone is not necessarily sufficient to conclude that conduct occurred.”

Of course, nothing close to that assertion, or its inherent assumption of innocence (a foundational standard of constitutional Rule of Law), entered the rhetorical lexicon of Senate Judiciary Committee Democrats in their “search and destroy” mission against Judge Kavanaugh. That charade, scripted by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), disgracefully used a distressed woman with conflicted memories, Christine Ford, as a political pawn. Feinstein seems to have achieved the optics Democrats were after, enraging their largest voter constituency, women, whom Demos treat like emotionally incontinent dupes.

As was their plan, Ford became the poster proxy for women who have had regrettable sexual encounters — from sexual harassment in the workplace, to encounters resulting from alcohol- or drug-impaired cognitive ability, to victimization by violent sexual assault. For women who have experienced an encounter anywhere on this spectrum, Ford embodies their collective anger, grief, and desire for justice, regardless of whether Ford’s allegations are true.

Conversely, Judge Kavanaugh became the poster proxy for every man who has ever offended a woman, from street-side cat-callers to serial rapists. As Democrats estimated, blocking the Kavanaugh nomination has become the proxy path to achieve a sense of collective “justice.” Never mind the end-justifies-the-meansstandard of “justice” they seek, which is the same sort of injustice upon which totalitarian regimes are built and sustained.

In January of this year, I wrote in “The Democrats’ 2018 Midterm Election Strategy” that they were “going to make the #MeToo ‘epidemic of sexual assault’ the centerpiece of their 2018 and 2020 elections.” Feinstein’s timing of the Kavanaugh derailment was a setup for the upcoming midterm elections, manufactured to energize enough women voters to carry Democrats to victory, particularly in those states where Donald Trump won majorities in 2016.

Recall that in the scheduled hearings for Judge Kavanaugh, when hordes of leftists were disrupting the Senate committee chamber and hallways, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) declared: “Why [are these protests] happening for the first time in the history of this committee? … You are the nominee of President Donald John Trump.”

Monday marked the beginning of a new Supreme Court term — without Kavanaugh.

Well played, Feinstein.

As place markers for the Democrats’ metastasizing investigation into Kavanaugh and their assault on our Constitution, what follows are three summaries of Feinstein’s ruse. First, a chronology of how Feinstein scripted the events. Second, a list of significant problems with Ford’s testimony. And last, a look at the hypocrisy of Kavanaugh’s accusers on the Judiciary Committee.

The Feinstein/Ford Timeline…

To review, the objective of Feinstein’s script to derail Kavanaugh was, and remains, to influence the midterm elections (particularly to flip the Senate, which would then make it difficult for Trump to nominate another SCOTUS candidate before the next Congress is seated in January, but also to flip committee control in the House, which would then bring to a screeching halt the investigation of the corrupt investigators in the phony Trump-Russia-collusion probe). To that end, despite the deal that committee Demos cut with Sen. Jeff Flake (?-AZ) last Thursday for a now-seventh FBI investigation of Kavanaugh that would be “limited in time and scope, to the current allegations … and limited in time to no more than one week,” Feinstein predictably declared Tuesday, “I believe it’s too soon. … We have to put all the facts together.”

This timeline of the Feinstein/Ford collusion to derail Kavanaugh is based on the Judiciary Committee chronology and other investigative sources.

On 30 July, Feinstein says she received a draft of a letter from Christine Blasey Fordwith allegations against Judge Kavanaugh. It had previously been sent to Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-CA).

It was not until after the conclusion of the 4-7 September confirmation hearings that the allegations against Kavanaugh were leaked to the mainstream media, without disclosing Ford’s name.

Feinstein did not make the Ford letter known to Republicans on the committee until almost a week after the close of the Kavanaugh hearings on 7 September. She claims the committee Democrats had only learned of it the day before.

On 13 September, Feinstein advised committee chairman Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) of the letter’s existence without naming Ford, and she sent a copy of the letter to the FBI. According to Feinstein’s script, she told the media, “I have received information from an individual concerning the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. That individual strongly requested confidentiality, declined to come forward or press the matter further, and I have honored that decision. I have, however, referred the matter to federal investigative authorities.”

Of course, this feigned desire to remain anonymous was meant to give Ford credibility and to suggest that she and Feinstein had no political motive. But it’s highly likely that Feinstein’s staff arranged for the contents of the letter to be “leaked,” and that is a matter the FBI should take up.

On 16 September, The Washington Post published an article with Ford’s name — which is how Sen. Grassley and his fellow Republicans found out who’d written the letter. On the 17th, Ford’s counsel told the MSM that Ford wanted a public hearing on the matter. A redacted copy of the Ford letter was leaked to CNN and published. The committee invited Ford to a hearing the following Monday, but no response was received from Ford or her attorneys. Judge Kavanaugh was then interviewed by committee investigative staff, but Democrats refused to participate in that interview.

On 20 September, Feinstein gave an un-redacted copy of the Ford letter to Grassley. Told that Ford wanted to maintain her anonymity and has a fear of flying, committee staff informed her attorneys that they would fly to California to interview her. In her testimony, Ford said she was never advised of this offer, almost certainly because Feinstein and Ford’s Democrat-activist attorneys were pushing for an optically sensational public hearing. Which they ultimately got.

The full details between 13 and 27 September can be read in the committee chronology, but suffice it to say that Feinstein’s motives are betrayed by what occurred between the time she received the Ford letter on 30 July and the time its contents were leaked to the press as the Kavanaugh hearings were concluding during the second week of September.

On 27 June, Democrats were alarmed by the announcement of Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement. They were even more alarmed on 9 July, when President Trump announced an exceptional (and more solidly conservative) replacement for Kennedy, his former clerk Brett Kavanaugh.

Coinciding with Feinstein’s receipt of Ford’s letter, there was a conference call to Democrats about the Kavanaugh nomination from leftist strategist Ricki Seidman (who became one of Ford’s “advisers”). In that conference call, Seidman stated, “Over the coming days and weeks there will be a strategy that will emerge, and I think it’s possible that that strategy might ultimately defeat the [Kavanaugh nomination].”

Given the nature and age of the allegations, Feinstein — and Ford, who teaches psychology of all things — most certainly knew that Ford should’ve gotten a forensic interview from a professional sex-crime investigator in order to determine the veracity of her claims. In essence, this is the equivalent of preserving the evidence so that it’s not contaminated, even though the evidence consisted only of Ford’s allegations. But the “evidence” was grossly contaminated in order that if fit into Feinstein’s plan.

A forensic interview would have helped substantiate Ford’s perception about what happened to her — in order to get to the truth.

Yet this has NEVER been about finding the truth but about creating unjust and inexcusable political optics.

Harvard Law School professor emeritus and liberal Democrat Alan Dershowitz says of Feinstein’s play: “When it’s a white man being accused by the Left of sexual offenses, all the rules are called off. The rules of presumption of innocence, the rules of due process — ‘we know he’s guilty because he’s a white man, she’s a woman, she’s a survivor,’ that’s the end of the inquiry.”

Instead, soon after receiving the letter, Feinstein suggested that Ford lawyer up, recommending Debra Katz, a hardcore Beltway Democrat specializing in sexual harassment. Katz and other Democrats then huddled with Ford, coaching her on how to proceed and, among other things, having her take a two-question polygraph examination, which determined only that Ford believed the story she had crafted.

Astoundingly, when asked about the leak at the close of Judge Kavanaugh’s testimony, Feinstein looked flustered, and after asserting that her staff did not leak the letter, she actually had the unmitigated audacity to blame Ford — to blame the “victim.”

It’s now clear that Feinstein had no intention of maintaining Ford’s “privacy” and that she scripted the entire charade. Feinstein should therefore be interviewed by the FBI to determine the sequence of events and motives behind the leaking of Ford’s letter. Feinstein’s actions, or those of her cutouts, likely warrant felony charges.

To that end, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), himself a Harvard-educated attorney, warned, “[Ford’s] lawyers are going to face a DC bar investigation into their misconduct” for not informing Ford that Senate investigators had offered to travel to California to interview her. Cotton also insisted, “Dianne Feinstein and her staff are going to face an investigation for why they leaked that. All of this could have been done discreetly. It happens hundreds of times every year in the Judiciary Committee.”

Substantive Problems With Ford’s Testimony…

Where to start with Ford’s salacious, unsupported, unsubstantiated, uncorroborated, and in fact refuted claims?

With an analytical ear and eye, I evaluated every painful minute of both the Ford and Kavanaugh testimonies.

Here’s my list of inconsistencies.

As to when the alleged groping occurred, Ford claimed, in communications with The Washington Post on 6 July, before sending her letter to Feinstein on 30 July, that the attack happened in the “mid 1980s.” Her letter to Feinstein noted “the early 80s.” She claimed in her testimony that she recalled running into Mark Judge (whom she says was with Kavanaugh when he assaulted her but who categorically denies it) at the Potomac Village Safeway some weeks after the incident, and that helped her place the timeline.

Apparently, Judge wrote a casual memoir that mentioned working at a food store, and Feinstein’s staff put that together for Ford after reviewing what Judge wrote.

Who did she tell that Kavanaugh was the alleged attacker? Until July of this year, she had never named him. Ford testified that she told her husband about a “sexual assault” before they were married in 2002 — 20 years after the alleged groping — but had told him it was “physical abuse” before they were married. But she didn’t name the alleged assailant, and no name was mentioned in her 2012 marriage therapy or her 2013 individual therapy.

Where did it happen? Ford only knows in broad terms when and where she attended a party and was allegedly groped by Kavanaugh. She doesn’t know how she got to the party, who took her, or whether it was before or after others arrived.

Ford doesn’t recall which of the “visibly drunk” boys, Kavanaugh or Judge, pushed her into the room, who turned up the music, or who pushed her onto the bed. She claimed Kavanaugh covered her mouth to keep her from crying out for help, but after some sort of groping, the three of them just toppled onto the floor, at which time the two drunk boys just let her “get up and run out of the room” to the bathroom right across the hall.

Why did she not run down the stairs for help instead of running to the bathroom right across the hall from the bedroom, where she stayed until the two boys had “loudly walked down the narrow stairs, pin-balling off the walls on the way down”?

Ford doesn’t recall who took her home after the party, approximately eight miles from where she estimates the party might have been.

Ford claims, “The details about that night … I will never forget. They have been seared into my memory.” But she has forgotten just about everything except that she just “drank one beer.”

However, nobody else remembers the alleged details, much less the party — even her friend Leland Keyser, whom she also places at the gathering. Indeed, all the alleged witnesses named by Ford have refuted her account.

Regarding Ford’s memory, Rachel Mitchell, the sex-crimes prosecutor who interviewed her, asked if Feinstein had suggested she obtain a “forensic interview” as noted in law-enforcement guidelines, because “effective investigation requires cooperation with a multi-disciplinary team that includes medical professionals, victim advocates, dedicated forensic interviewers, criminalists, and other law enforcement members.”

Ford stated simply, “No,” but someone of Ford’s academic standing, a PhD in psychology, should certainly have known that a forensic interview would have been part of the correct course of action. Ford gave very technical testimony about memories, noting that various neurotransmitters “code memories into the hippocampus, and so the trauma-related experience is locked there, whereas other details kind of drift.” But it never occurred to her, or Feinstein, or the attorneys she recommended for Ford that a forensic interview was in order?

Mitchell outlined many serious inconsistencies in a lengthy analysis of Ford’s testimony, concluding, “A ‘he said, she said’ case is incredibly difficult to prove. But this case is even weaker than that.” Key points of those inconsistencies are outlined here and here.

Tuesday, a man who was in a relationship with Ford for six years prior to her marriage has submitted a sworn statement to Sen. Grassley, casting significant doubt on the claims in Ford’s testimony. Among other things, he wrote, “During our time dating, Dr. Ford never brought up anything regarding her experience as a victim of sexual assault, harassment, or misconduct.” And he also indicated, contrary to Ford’s testimony, that she had coached someone else about passing a polygraph exam.

This other person denies his claim.

Washington attorney James Thurber has compiled a lot of questions the FBI should be asking Dr. Ford.

Predictably, as the Feinstein/Ford case against Kavanaugh is collapsing, Democrats are now desperately moving the goalposts, shifting their investigation to his testimony about his high-school yearbook and his comments about alcohol use, thereby seeking some path, any path to perjury. (This is similar to the Democrats’ shift, once the fake Trump/Russia collusion conspiracy began to collapse, to an obstruction of justice investigation.)

For the record, the previous FBI probes would have covered the question of alcohol use.

Finally, the Hypocrites…

Ford’s spurious allegations are being heralded by the party of serial sexual assailant Bill Clinton and his chief defender and enabler Hillary Clinton, and by DNC Deputy Chair Keith Ellison.

Feinstein, a card-carrying Clintonista, now wants to investigate groping allegations from 36 years ago? Somebody get Juanita Broaddrick and Clinton’s other victims on the line.

And there sits committee member Sen. Cory “Spartacus” Booker (D-NJ), judging Kavanaugh for allegedly groping somebody 36 years ago. But it was Booker who revealed in a college newspaper that he had once groped an intoxicated 15-year-old girl.

But at the very top of the “creep factor” scale is committee member Richard “Stolen Valor” Blumenthal (D-CT), who made it clear this week that no amount of FBI investigation would be sufficient: “This list of witnesses is only a beginning. It’s not the end of what the FBI needs to do.”

When questioning Kavanaugh, Blumenthal strolled out a little Latin: “Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus,” noting the principle in a trial that when a witness lies about one thing, he will lie about anything. But it’s Blumenthal who is the most egregious of liars.

In his best put-on, he declared that Kavanaugh was guilty as charged and would be a “stain” on the Supreme Court. But according to even The New York Times, Blumenthal is a well-documented liar. He’s also a stain on the U.S. Senate.

In the run-up to his first Senate campaign in 2010, then-Connecticut Attorney General Blumenthal repeatedly declared that he had served in Vietnam — but he did not.

At an event honoring veterans, Blumenthal asserted, “We have learned something important since the days that I served in Vietnam, and you exemplify it.”

At a memorial service for fallen veterans, he said, “When we returned from Vietnam, I remember the taunts, the verbal and even physical abuse we encountered. We had to endure taunts and insults, and no one said ‘Welcome home.’”

On another occasion to welcome OEF and OIF veterans home, he said, “When we returned, we saw nothing like this.”

According to the Times, after at least five deferments, “In 1970, with his last deferment in jeopardy, [Blumenthal] landed a coveted spot in the Marine Reserve, which virtually guaranteed that he would not be sent to Vietnam. He joined a unit in Washington that conducted drills and other exercises and focused on local projects, like fixing a campground and organizing a Toys for Tots drive.”

Caught in his disgraceful lie, Blumenthal said, “I may have misspoken — I did misspeak — on a few occasions [but] I will not allow anyone to take a few of those misplaced words and impugn my record of service. I regret that I misspoke…”

Whatever you say, Sergeant Stolen Valor.

Laughably, leaping to new hypocritical heights, Feinstein offered this assessment of Kavanaugh’s response to her witch-hunt charade: “Judge Kavanaugh did not reflect an impartial temperament, or the fairness and even-handedness one would see in a judge. He was aggressive and belligerent. He should not be rewarded with a lifetime Supreme Court seat.”

Just how is an innocent man supposed to comport himself when confronted with an utterly flimsy 36-year-old attempted rape allegation? Answer: with righteous indignation. (Had Kavanaugh instead responded meekly and mildly during his testimony, you can be certain that Democrats would’ve pointed to his lack of anger as evidence of his guilt.)

Chuck Schumer (D-NY) also got the parroting memo: “Judge Kavanaugh harbors deep, deep partisan resentments. That’s not the kind of Justice we need on the Supreme Court.”

And after dragging Kavanaugh and the nation through this charade, now Feinstein is arguing that the final FBI report should remain highly confidential…

All said, on Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) called out Democrats on their Kavanaugh agenda, saying: “The national spectacle the professional left has created around Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation process has now reached some kind of fever pitch … a [virtual] mudslide of wild, uncorroborated accusations have poured out. This mudslide has been actively embraced, urged on and capitalized upon by Democrats inside this chamber and [their] far-left special interests. … The time for endless delay and obstruction has come to a close. Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination is out of committee. We’re considering it here on the floor and … we’ll be voting this week.”

As we await the FBI report, notably, a Harvard Center for American Political Studies poll was just released, and according to that survey this week, 60% of Americans support Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation if the FBI finds no other evidence to corroborate Ford’s accusations. And 75% of respondents believe that Feinstein should have provided Ford’s letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee when she received it in July, rather than waiting until Kavanaugh’s hearing had concluded.

Semper Vigilans Fortis Paratus et Fidelis
Pro Deo et Libertate — 1776

Gun Laws Eased in Brazil

Brazil Considers Scaling Back Its Gun Control

From endorsing Brazil’s military regime to fashioning himself as the Brazilian Donald Trump, Brazilian presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro has a flair for generating controversy. According to a report from Reuters, Bolsonaro is considering the relaxation of Brazil’s strict gun laws. For a country besieged by street violence, Bolsonaro’s proposal is a breath of fresh air.

Brazil Has a Violence Problem

Brazil features some of the most violent cities on the planet. According to a recent ranking from the Citizen’s Council for Public Security and Criminal Justice (CCSPJP), 19 of these cities are located in Brazil. With a rate of 30.8 homicides per 100,000 people in 2017, Brazil is one of the most violent countries in Latin America.

Organized crime and feuds between rival gangs have contributed to the alarming levels of violence throughout the country. But criminal elements are not alone in this violence equation. Heavy-handed security measures have also played a role in Brazil’s ever-rising homicide rates.

Traditionally a function of individual states, Brazilian armed forces recently took control of public security in Rio de Janeiro. Current president Michel Temer rationalized this extreme measure arguing that “circumstances demand it.”

In Brazil, the use of military force to battle crime is nothing new The country already enjoys notoriety for its infamous favelas (slums) that are rife with gang violence. As a result, military and well-armed security forces have been deployed on numerous occasions to quell violence. So far, the war-like struggle between gangs and security forces has produced a significant body count.

According to figures from Gunpolicy.org, Brazil had approximately 45,000 firearms homicides in 2014 alone. Even with a tough government response, there appears to be no end in sight to Brazil’s crime problems.

Is More Policing the Silver Bullet?

International concern about Brazil’s levels of violence is warranted. However, experts tend to provide conventional solutions to Brazil’s ongoing crime problems such as more “efficient” policing and anti-corruption task forces. These “common sense” proposals, while reasonable, involve more government intrusion in peoples’ lives and do not strike at the root of Brazil’s problems.

It’s no secret Brazil has a lousy law enforcement infrastructure that fails to protect its people. Jair Bolsonaro himself was the victim of a highly publicized stabbing attack on the campaign trail. But such incidents aren’t just limited to the political class. Millions of Brazilians living in urban areas throughout the country must cope with the daily threat of violent crimes.

In an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, gun researcher John Lott revealed how the average police response time is more than an hour in the poorest areas of Brazil; an unreliable response time for a country that so desperately needs public order. This takes the adage of “when seconds count, the police are just minutes way” to another level.

Gun Control: The 800 Pound Elephant in the Room

Questionable policing is only the tip of the iceberg. Brazil’s gun control laws are problematic for a country suffering a widespread crime epidemic. In the same interview with CFR, Lott adds another overlooked fact about Brazil’s gun control experience: “Between 1992 and 2002, it passed a total of eighteen gun-control regulations and laws. I think this is just a continuation of the trend.”

Despite numerous gun control regulations already on the books, crime has continued to rise. For a law-abiding Brazilian, getting a gun is no walk in the park. They must comply with the following requirements:

1. Be 25 years of age

2. Hold a license

3. Pay registration fees

4. Go through extensive background checks

Thanks to these regulatory hoops, only 3.5% of the Brazilian population legally owned firearms prior to 2004. In sum, Brazil’s current gun control status quo treats gun ownership more like a regulated privilege rather than a right that the masses are free to exercise.

Brazil is Waking Up

Thankfully, Bolsonaro has not been alone in his advocacy for reforming guns laws. Organizations like the Viva Brazil Movement have taken up the mantle of expanding gun rights in the crime-ridden country. The Viva Brazil Movement came to the spotlight in 2005 when they played an integral role in defeating a referendum that would have banned firearms in Brazil.

Since their victory, the Viva Brazil Movement has continued its push to expand gun rights in Brazil. And now they might get a major political break.

Tense as ever, Brazil’s political climate has taken a sharp turn for the worse since it hosted the World Cup in 2014. Since news of several corruption scandals taking place during the World Cup surfaced, serve political dominoes have fallen.

First, President Dilma Rouseff was impeached for corruption charges. Then, ex-president Lula da Silva, was jailed for corruption and money laundering.

If passed, gun reform would bring much needed sanity to Brazil’s political scene. Brazilian citizens would then have a tool of empowerment in times where corruption and violence are the order of the day.

Win or lose, Bolsonaro has at least opened up the conversation on a historically taboo topic in Latin American politics. If Brazil is able to move in a pro-gun direction, it will serve as a beacon of hope for a Latin American region that is wedded to gun control.

Jose Nino is a Venezuelan-American political activist based in Fort Collins, Colorado. Contact: twitter or email him here.

Family Problems and the Theory of Relativity

Confusing, to say the least.

Coach Muller's avatarMy Good Time Stories

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Everyone comes from a family and it goes without saying that problems and negative situations will occasionally show their ugly heads. But the one thing that some just can’t seem to figure out is the family and relative terminology such as who is their second or third cousin, great uncle, etc. Stuff like this can drive us crazy. They can really create turmoil and misunderstanding.

But…

If you think your family has problems figuring this stuff out, consider the marriage mayhem created when 76-year-old Bill Baker of London recently wed Edna Harvey. She happened to be his granddaughter’s husband’s mother. That’s where the confusion began, according to Baker’s granddaughter, Lynn.

“My mother-in-law is now my step-grandmother. My grandfather is now my stepfather-in-law. My mom is my sister-in-law and my brother is my nephew. But even crazier is that I’m now married to my uncle…

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China/ Taiwan

The US Sells Arms to Taiwan – China Shows its Anger

The US Sells Arms to Taiwan - China Shows its Anger (article)

The Communist Revolution in 1949 resulted in an exodus to Taiwan, ever since, Beijing has viewed Taiwan as a rogue or breakaway province and not a separate country. So when the US sells arms to Taiwan, the voices in Beijing become louder and this impacts US relations. In a deal that states that the US will sell $330 million on spare parts for aircraft to Taiwan, China is making it crystal clear to the US that it is not pleased.

China sees Taiwan as a rogue state, while the US sees it as a partner in security. A US government statement said Taiwan is, “an important force for political stability, military balance, and economic progress in the region.” The Pentagon`s Defense Security Cooperation Agency has said that the sale will contribute to improving security and capability of the recipient.

We all know that Taiwan is a hot spot for the Chinese and the Americans – there have been several military challenges, the most recent being during the Clinton presidency when US aircraft battle groups were sent to the Taiwan Straits. The US has had several spats with Beijing on arms sales and other assistance to the island country of Taiwan. In June of 2017, the US sold missiles to Taiwan, again causing a verbal challenge from Beijing.

The Trump Administration has slapped tariffs on Chinese goods to the tune of over $200 billion dollars and continues to work closely with Taiwan – again a rogue state in the eyes of Beijing – so the US – China relationship will likely get worse before it gets better.

Please see our audiovisual presentations on China. They discuss in detail the challenges in the South China Sea.

Team Classiarius