GDP Estimation Crapshoot: When Errors Balance Out and When They Don’t

Good read

MishTalk

In the first quarter of 2017, models that supposedly had a margin of error of one percentage point had more than two percentages points difference.

The discrepancy between GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast is “only” one percentage point now, but my own personal assessment of second quarter GDP differs from GDPNow by at least 1.8 percentage points.

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