The Pension Crisis Will Break Up the EU | Armstrong Economics

The German public broadcast agency ARD is proposing structural changes. Due to the low-interest rates, the ECB has placed the agency in hard times with its pensions. Karola Wille, the director, has called for structural reform to reduce costs. The proposal centers on technological change to increase efficiency in the performance of its mandate. They are also looking at developing cross-media applications to modernize the agency. The ARD is non-profit so the German government has to fund it. As the low-interest rates have undermined pensions throughout Europe, the governments will have to step up and bail them out. This is going to put tremendous pressure on the entire EU budget and austerity policy embedded within the single currency. We are looking at the same story being painted throughout Europe. The low-interest rate policy for nearly 10 years has not merely destroyed the bond market in Europe, it has undermined the pension system both privately and publicly. Indeed, adding to this crisis is the mandate that all pension funds hold some or the majority of their investments into government debt. The combination of these policies clashes with the ECB and the nightmare on the horizon and why Draghi can’t leave fast enough to avoid personal blame. This crisis all stems from the structural design of the EU. They tried to be half pregnant with only a single currency and dictatorial control over member state budgets. The refusal to consolidate the debt emphasized the problem of the great disparities in cultures and the prevailing prejudices that exist through Europe between member states as well as within member states such as Bavaria v northern Germany or Spain v Catalonia, Scotland v Britain, Italy v Sicily, etc.. This prevailing prejudice is also why the bail-in policy was adopted. If Italian banks failed, then a centralized source of funds would amount to transfer payments between one member state to another. This was the very reason the EU rejected debt consolidation, to begin with. True, Greece was offered “loans” but its feet were held to the fire to pay it back. That was again rejecting any idea of a single Europe implied by transfer payments v loans. Furthermore, as this pension crisis matures, we will have the same problem of transfer payments. This is how and why the EU will break apart because there is no actual resolution to consolidate the debts. The talk of Eurobonds is merely a way for the EU to borrow, but it will still not result in debt consolidation. What they are proposing is the same structure as the mortgage-backed CDO crisis of 2007. Bundling member state debt into a single Eurobond but each member still is responsible for its own debt. The structural failure of the EU has been all about how they could have their cake and eat it too. This is also why none of the leaders in Brussels ever stand for election. They are embedded in a deliberate denial of any democratic process.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/the-pension-crisis-will-breakup-the-eu/

Dominos

The Dollar is Not Dead After All? | Armstrong Economics

CLICK ON CHART It is amazing how people have simply declared that the dollar is in a perpetual bear market as if the USA is the only nation with a debt. They judge the entire future by a few weeks of price action. That is what is so dangerous – emotional trading. I have been warning that ONLY a dollar’s resurgence would create a monetary crisis. The entire world is free to issue debt in dollars and emerging market have done so. As interest rates were manipulated to a 5,000 historic low by central banks, they never thought about what would happen to pensions. So many pensions ran into the open arms of emerging debt which doubled its issue in less than 8 years. The foolish fund managers ran headstrong into emerging markets seeking HIGH YIELD! The dollar rally is now rippling through emerging markets, sparking steep falls in stocks, bonds, and their currencies wiping out whatever gains they thought were guaranteed. We are looking a devastation around the globe with the Turkish lira falling almost another 6%. Argentina’s peso is also in trouble as the central bank raised the interest rate to 40% trying to support the currency. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which measures stock performance, is also down 1.5%. Then there is the JPMorgan index for emerging-market government bonds in their respective local currencies has also dropped almost 4% in the past month. These declines illustrate that there is rising uncertainty about the outlook for emerging-market assets among fund managers. Many have been showing that 2018 would be a Directional Change following the surge many saw during 2017. Since January 2018, this turning point which made many call a bear market in the US shares has also marked the beginning of a shift in worldwide trends. Complexity. You have to Love the interconnections. Keeps the brain awake.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/the-dollar-is-not-dead-after-all/

Trump v Obama Trillion Dollar Deficits | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: You ignore that Trump will create a deficit of a trillion in one year with his tax cuts for the rich. What do you have to say about that one! HT ANSWER: So what? Obviously, you probably are a CNN watcher. They never said anything about Obama who created the first trillion deficit and maintained that throughout his presidency between 2009 to 2012. What does it matter? Nobody ever intends to pay it back. Just in case you just noticed, that is the least of our problems. Try talking about the Pension Fund Crisis that will hit all the people directly. The Trump deficit will put money back into the economy directly whereas the Obama deficits were never something that actually stimulated the people directly. It was like Quantitative Easing – welfare for the bankers, not the people.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/trump-v-obama-trill-dollar-deficits/

Ouch, a reality check

Interest Expenditures Will Now Exceed Military Spending – We are being Walled-In by our Own Debt | Armstrong Economics

I have been warning for years at the World Economic Conferences that interest expenditures will reach the point that they will crowd out everything else. Well
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/interest-expenditures-will-now-exceed-military-spending-we-are-being-walled-in-by-our-own-debt/

This should scare and anger you. This cannot end well.