Cologne Institute of German Business Warns of Deposit Protection May Not Survive in Europe | Armstrong Economics

The Cologne Institute of German Business sees in the planned European deposit insurance is simply incapable of proving protection against a bank crash in Europe. The EU deposit guarantee is simply not practical under any concept of austerity. The Eurozone still has inherent significant risks in the balance sheets of European financial institutions. This is primarily because where the USA took the bad loans from the banks and stuffed them into Freddie and Fanny, in Europe, the bad loans are still on the books of the banks. Systemically, this has been the leading problem why Europe has been unable to recover and Quantitative Easing merely robber savers of their income and it failed completely to stimulate the economy. Banks were still reluctant to lend and people would not borrow if they did not have confidence in the future. The proportion of bad loans is so different between the individual banks that a joint deposit guarantee leads to a permanent transfer mechanism. This is a complete disaster and pulls the EU apart. As the worse banks are in Southern Europe, Northern Europe will see this as a bailout for the South. Therein lies the very crisis and why the structure of the Eurozone from the outset has been such a complete disaster. All national debts of member states should have been consolidated and that should have become the European National Debt. Thereafter, member states should have been on their own. But that common sense design was ignored for political purposes. Any consolidation of debt was seen as a bailout for weaker member states. This inherent disparity simply remains intact with no solution in sight. The recapitalization costs for eliminating non-performing loans (NPLs) just in Cyprus will still consume 2.4% of GDP in that member state. In Greece, any recapitalization will cost 2% of GDP and in Italy 0.8%. The disparity among members smacks of transfer payments which have been a sore subject behind the design of the Euro. A closer look at Italy reveals that more than 10% of the balance sheets of Italian banks constitute bad loans. The cost to bailout Italy is put at €189 billion while Spain comes in around €100 billion and even France will be €85 billion. In Germany, the bad loans amount to about €48 billion While nobody wants to talk about it, the obvious issue is why has Deutsche Bank not been merged with Commerzbank? The bad loan problem a derivatives problem would simply not be solved even by such a merger. Is it any wonder why politicians have looked to bail-ins rather than bailouts?
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/cologne-institute-of-german-business-warns-of-deposit-protection-may-not-survive-in-europe/

Scary

The US Two-Tier Monetary System that Ended in 1971 | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: You said the US had a two-tier monetary system under Bretton Woods. Can you explain that one, please? DHJ ANSWER: When Roosevelt confiscated gold, he created, in reality, a two-tier monetary system quite frankly as the medieval city of Florence. The Great Financial Panic of 1344 was when the value of silver rose dramatically blowing out the silver/gold ratio. Silver was used locally for the normal people. Their wages were paid in silver. The gold florin was used for international trade and companies had to keep actually two sets of books with accounting in each separate currency. When Roosevelt confiscated gold, he devalued the dollar from $20.67 per ounce of gold to $35. Gold remained the unit of account for INTERNATIONAL transactions. While the last silver dollar was at first still minted, it was decided to end that production as well. Therefore, the last U.S. silver dollar to be struck was that of 1935. Nonetheless, the government then maintained silver as a backing for the currency domestically and issued Silver Certificates until 1963. When the price of silver was rising with just about all other commodities during the early 1960s, the pressure was mounting on the financial system. President Kennedy authorized the abandonment of silver as a backing for the currency. He allowed the silver certificates to be redeemed for silver bullion. However, the minimum lot accepted for redemption was 5,000 for this was the size of the silver bars. Therefore, in 1963 is when we see the beginning of the end in the two-tier monetary system. Between 1964 and 1971, the gold standard remained intact until President Nixon was forced to close the gold window ending the convertibility of dollars to gold internationally. So, you see, the United States maintained a two-tier monetary system like Florence, silver for domestic use and gold for international trade. The difference was that when the silver/gold ratio broke, people were laid-off and unemployment soared. The people stormed the palaces of the bankers, plundered them, and then set them on fire.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/americas-economic-history/the-us-two-tier-monetary-system-that-ended-in-1971/

The Changing Wind in Politics by Generation | Armstrong Economics

There is a major shift underway in the public sentiment that is underscoring why our computer has been forecasting the collapse in Marxist/Socialism. The message of the Democrats has been the same since the Great Depression – vote for us and we will rob those who have more and give it to you. When we just look at the fact and put aside the political biases, the chart shows a very striking trend. When we combine both the Senate and the House and then plot the number of seats each party held as a percent of the whole combination, we see that the Democrats peaked with FDR. They have won at times ever since, but the percentage of seats held has been gradually declining. Now an online survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 has revealed that support for Democrats over Republicans in Congress has continued to decline among the youth. It has fallen another 9% since the 2016 election to just 46%. The responses say that the Republican Party is a better steward of the economy. This should come as no surprise. The entire Marxist agenda resonated with the Great Depression generation as the Marxists blamed corporations and never mentioned the Global Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931. The younger generations are simply viewing the world differently as to what they can do themselves rather than what government can do for them. They simply want to keep more of what they work for. The Marxist message of the Democrats is gradually fading out. Equal Justice for All means it should apply fairly to everyone, not just some.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/the-changing-wind-in-politics-by-generation/

Trump v Obama Trillion Dollar Deficits | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: You ignore that Trump will create a deficit of a trillion in one year with his tax cuts for the rich. What do you have to say about that one! HT ANSWER: So what? Obviously, you probably are a CNN watcher. They never said anything about Obama who created the first trillion deficit and maintained that throughout his presidency between 2009 to 2012. What does it matter? Nobody ever intends to pay it back. Just in case you just noticed, that is the least of our problems. Try talking about the Pension Fund Crisis that will hit all the people directly. The Trump deficit will put money back into the economy directly whereas the Obama deficits were never something that actually stimulated the people directly. It was like Quantitative Easing – welfare for the bankers, not the people.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/trump-v-obama-trill-dollar-deficits/

Ouch, a reality check

The First Representative Form of Money | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I was discussing the history of money with a professor at our university where they have a display of coins. I asked why were there no Egyptian coins. He referred me to your site and said that you are the expert in the world monetary system. I read your piece on the Egyptian deben monetary system. The Egyptians began with a representative money rather than coins. Is this the oldest civilization with pyramids and paper money? JY ANSWER: From a monetary perspective, the Egyptian monetary system is by far the first representative form of money. In other words, they used a derivative of paper money proving that money also need not be tangible as has been the case in modern times. The central element of any monetary system hinges upon whatever the people “believe” has value. In Egypt, gold was seen as the tears of god and was reserved EXCLUSIVELY for royalty. Gold did not serve as any sort of medium of exchange until about 700 BC. Why? For anything to serve as the medium of exchange it must exist in sufficient quantity. As long as gold was rare, it was exclusively the property of kings and represented a luxury with no PRACTICAL value whatsoever. Egypt’s monetary system began with barter. It was primarily based on agriculture – grain. This evolved into official Graineries and a farmer would then take his crop to the Grainery and receive a receipt. With time, the monetary system evolved where people would then accept these receipts (paper money) in payment. The huge difference between Egypt and Mesopotamia can be seen through the monetary system. The earliest use of metal appears to be in Mesopotamia cast in the form of silver rings. In ancient Egypt, silver was probably more expensive than gold which was rather common after the exploitation of the Numbian mines. Evidence supporting this idea comes from a New Kingdom Period wall painting depicting a man weighing big gold rings which were discovered in Thebes. This is the Deben Monetary System. Eventually, gold rings became customary to carry out trade with the outside world. So we tend to find the beginning of a two-tier monetary system using grain receipts for local small transactions and gold rings for international payments of a higher monetary value. We see this type of two-tier monetary system throughout the ancient world right into modern times. Ancient Athenian Decadrachms are traditionally discovered around the Mediterranean seaport rather than in Greece reflecting they were high denominations used in international trade. Bretton Woods used gold dor international payments and paper money for domestic US transactions when gold was illegal for citizens to possess. The two-tier monetary system lasted in modern times up until August 1971. To make trade between Phoenicia and Mesopotamia easier they created a system that could have been based on the traditional Egyptian measurement known as deben that was equal to about 86 grams, which would exchange for 12 shekels used by Babylon and Phoenicia of about 7.2 grams per unit. Pictured here is a dishekel of the Phoenician city of Tyre, which is believed to be the earliest known coin circa 450-425BC. The date of the first Phoenician coins is uncertain. The earliest date generally accepted by scholars is about 450 BC and initially, the coins were all silver with weights based on variations of the Babylonian shekel of 7.2 grams. The most interesting aspect is that Phoenicia possessed no precious metal mines. The source of their silver came from trade with distant mines in Spain and possibly Sardinia. The motif is that of a dolphin riding the waves and the reverse with the wisdom of the owl. Now, just to address your comment that Egypt has the oldest pyramids, that is an incorrect statement. Caral has the distinction of being the oldest known city in the Americas and one of the oldest in the world. In fact, the Caral Pyramids were built approximately 5,000 years ago and they are actually OLDER than the Egyptian pyramids by around 100 years. They predate the Inca Pyramids by some 4000 years. Like other pyramids in history, the Caral pyramids are believed to have religious significance. There are six total pyramids. The Norte Chico civilization flourished between the 4th and 2nd centuries BC. It appears to have been simply a barter civilization, yet there are many mysteries yet to be solved. For instance, there remain some very curious questions unanswered such as why are there no surviving evidence of ceramics? They appear to have used gourds instead of ceramics. Gourds may be good for storage and drinking or eating, but would not function as pots for cooking. There appears to also be missing any evidence of agriculture so it is possible they never eat bread. We do know that they used blue whale vertebrae as stools suggesting that they lived off the sea. It is entirely possible that they eat fish raw like the Japanese. On some of the gourds, figures have been discovered which may represent a deity. Very few have survived but they may represent some form of a god reflecting a religious belief system that appears to be common to all civilizations. There is also no sign of significant surviving art perhaps because they were made from organic material, which did not survive.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/ancient-economies/the-first-representative-form-of-money/