Currency Risk – The Great Unknown That Brings Down Governments | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: Hi, I am not sure if I understand how it would work but obviously, this is highly hypothetical today. If the reserve currency is SDR, we still need debt denominated in SDR and a very large and deep market accessible by investors to park money there. If individual countries have their own currency and issue their debt in that currency, or SDR for that matter, is it not just the same as the EUR today! Credit risk has to match with the currency of the central bank if I understand the shortcoming of Europe today. PH ANSWER: You are correct. As soon as you borrow in another currency, you will then encounter FOREX risk. Third world countries have been borrowing in dollars extensively. As the dollar rises, we will see defaults BECAUSE of the currency risk. It would not matter if countries borrowed in dollars or SDRs, they will encounter the same currency risk. At the very least, countries must be prohibited from borrowing in foreign currencies, or preferably, governments should be prohibited from borrowing PERIOD! The Roman Empire lasted for nearly 1,000 years. They neither had a central bank nor a national debt. There are other ways to restructure the global financial system. I am preparing the full solution that we need to examine based upon history and what has worked and what has failed.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/currency-risk-the-great-unknown-that-brings-down-governments/

Portugal | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: Can you shed any light on the history of money in Portugal. There seems to be scant discussion of this subject. Thank you ANSWER: The first coinage of Portugal really is Roman and it appears to be struck by the first Roman Emperor Octavian/Augustus (27BC-14AD). The location of the mint was the city of Évora. Interestingly enough, the name in ancient times was Ebora, which is really Celtic which is the name of a species of tree and thus the name means “of the yew trees.” However, there is a lack of any evidence of ancient settlements prior to that of the Roman. Perhaps because any Celtic evidence lies under the city which is not accessible to archeologists. It is generally assumed that Évora only came into being as a municipium after the Pax Romana under Octavian in 30 BC which are really the first coin evidence in the region. Yet the name implies there was Celtic activity previously. The first reference to Évora as a municipium is found in a list of cities in Hispania in the Historia Naturalis of Pliny the Elder to the year 77AD. During the 4th and 5th centuries, the Roman mint for coinage in the Spanish/Portugees region was actually Barcino, or Barcelona. So the early coinage of Portugal appears first under Augustus and then later the coinage is all struck in Barcelonia. In more modern times, you might be wondering where are there different references to money. There were reis and reals and gold ducketsrelate. From the 12th century, Portugal had a currency called the dinheiro (dinero). The word today means money and is taken from the Roman denarius. Real meant royal, as in a royal coin, and reis was the plural of real. Portugal’s capital is Lisbon but it did not emerge as a nation until 1143, as a result of a rebellion by Dom Afonso Henriques (Afonso I) against his own mother Teresa of LeĂłn. Portugal won its independence at the Battle of SĂŁo Mamede near the town of GuimarĂŁes, in June of 1128. The first coinage of Portugal was that of Alfonso I (1139-1185) and it was a dinero. Europe had silver mines, but not gold. Gold was found in Northern Africa and in Anatolia (modern Turkey). Portugal became prominent because it had trade links with the Arabs and imported gold for Europe. Therefore, during 15th and 16th centuries, Portugal emerged as a powerful nation and naval power. Famous explorers are Fernando Magellan (circumnavigated the world), Vasco da Gama (discovered the route to India) and Bartolomeu Dias (sailed around Africa). Portugal made many discoveries and established colonies all over the world. The most famous one is Brazil, but it also established colonies in Africa, such as Mozambique and Angola, and on other continents. Portugal was actually the first global power and one of the biggest empires at that time and was, therefore, the Financial Capital of Europe. During a 1910 revolution, the rebellion against government erupted once again and overthrew the monarchy. For most of the next six decades, repressive governments ran the country. This led once again to civil unrest and a 1974 military coup installed broad democratic reforms. Finally, on January 1, 1986, Portugal became the eleventh member of the European Economic Community.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/ancient-economies/portugal/

Warning Capital Outflows from Europe Are the Greatest in the World Economy | Armstrong Economics

Our models based upon reliable source flow data is currently showing that the Eurozone is the NUMBER ONE place in the world with the greatest amount of capital fleeing than any other region in worldwide. This is indicating that the CONFIDENCE in the Euro Project appears to be collapsing among the most conservative elements within Europe. The design of the Euro is simply structurally flawed and there is no real chance of saving the Euro for underneath there remains the prevailing prejudices against true consolidation to create what was needed to support the very idea of single currency. Eventually, we are looking at a very serious political crisis brewing in Europe. The internal flight is to the British pound which is starting to shift from even Germany. Externally, there is a flight still to the dollar-based assets globally.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/warning-capital-outflows-from-europe-are-the-greatest-in-the-world-economy/