Currency 💴

Real Estate & Understanding The Role of Debt | Armstrong Economics

Posted on by johnbarleycorn12

QUESTION: Dear Sir/Madam Thank you so much for what you all do. I was just reading today’s Blog 17-08-2018 – ‘ Real Estate – Leverage – Transition to the Reset ‘. The bit I did not understand was where it was written ‘ Keep in mind that as the currency declines, then the repayment cost of a mortgage declines. One the one hand, mortgages will be unavailable but those who hold the mortgage lose the most ‘ My question is when the Reset happens in which way will the mortgage holders lose the most even if the repayment cost of a mortgage declines ? I live in the UK thank you so much ANSWER: Since I posted that chart from Socrates that illustrates real estate, many people have written in to ask where can they find that on Socrates. This is part of the pro-version that will be release WE HOPE for the WEC this year. Here are the real estate markets covered by Socrates at this time. What I mean when I say that those who hold mortgages lose in such a situation of a decline in the purchasing power of a currency is basic. The city of Detroit suspended its payments on bonds in 1937. They resumed in 1963. Now they say they never defaulted. However, they paid back with cheaper dollars. The holder of a mortgage or a bond charges interest which is supposed to be more than the inflation rate. When inflation exceeds the interest rate, then you are paying back with cheaper dollars. Take a life-insurance policy. If you bought one in the 1940s and it was for the huge amount of $5,000, after funeral costs of say $1,500, you left your heirs a sizable chunk of money. Today, that is nothing and will cover at best 20% of the cost of a funeral. Life-insurance is always paying back with a cheaper dollar. This is the problem in Europe. Greece, Italy, and Spain were accustomed to paying their past debts with a cheaper currency. When they converted their debts to the Euro and the Euro doubled in value, suddenly they went into deflation and cannot pay their debts and survive. The borrower always benefits over the long-run because they are traditionally paying back with cheaper currency. If you took out a mortgage in 2007 when the pound hit 2.11 and you paid it off in 2016 when the pound was 1.18, you saved 44% in real terms of currency. This is what was behind the real estate boom that government and the vast majority of people do not understand. One of the reasons I have been blamed for creating the take over boom back in the 1980s, was that I had shown some of the takeover playing how to use currency. In the case of Alan Bond who bought all the Courage Pubs back then, we were borrowing in a currency that was declining against the pound. I showed him and others how to take debt and convert it into a performing asset. They were the fun times.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/real-estate-understanding-the-role-of-debt/

I had never considered this

Erdogan Has His Boys Out Burning only $1 Bills for Propaganda | Armstrong Economics

Posted on by johnbarleycorn12

Erdogan has his boys dressed in suits burning only a handful of US ONE DOLLAR bills as a nice propaganda piece. In truth, the Turkish people have been hoarding Dollars and Euros because they have lost all faith in their own currency. It is nice that Erdogan has a few people burning less than $100 for a video. All it shows is in fact that Erdogan is belligerent and he will put himself before the good of his own people. He can pretend the people are burning dollars, but they are not cashing them in for lira. He is running around asking for help from France, Germany, Qatar, and anyone else with spare change.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/turkey/erdogan-has-his-boys-out-burning-only-1-bills-for-propaganda/

You have to feel sorry for the people of Turkey 😞

The Crisis is Turkey | Armstrong Economics

Posted on by johnbarleycorn12

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey is finding his dreams of an all-powerful resurrection of the Ottoman Empire are falling apart. Qatar has come to the aid of Turkey offering $15 billion in a loan, but keep in mind that the entire issue with Syria began with Qatar proposing a pipeline through Syria to compete with natural gas with Russia. Therefore, it is in Qatar’s best interest to keep Turkey trying to invade Syria. The price will be the pipeline, which we seriously doubt will ever take place. Erdogan has sent the Turkish economy into a downward spiral for some time. Its soaring inflation has exceeded 100% and rising debt-to-GDP of about 70% under President Recep Erdogan’s regime has been a growing problem. As central banks pumped money into the system over the past decade, nations like Turkey and other emerging market economies used the opportunity to raise more and more “cheap” debt to boost their productivity. Turkey has attracted capital from Europe seeking higher yields because of the negative interest rates policy of the ECB. Now we have a crisis in Turkey that is also the result of Draghi’s Quantitative Easing that drove capital to Turkey and FAILED to revived the European economy. Erdogan’s dream of restoring the Ottoman Empire is no joke. It has been European money seeking higher yield that kept him in power. It is curious how those who seek dictatorial power are the ones who dream of restoring the power of empires long since dead. Erdogan has wanted to recreate the Ottoman Empire just as the dream of the reestablishment of the old Roman Empire as was the desire behind Napoleon and Hitler. The days of Empire Building are long gone and Erdogan has been living in the past. His goal was to expand his country’s military operations in Syria and this, he hoped, would be the first step as with Hitler’s invasion of Poland. However, the lira collapse and the expensive dollar are conspiring against him. On the one hand, Erdogan is attracted to dealing with Russia who is on the opposite side of the game board with Qatar. Erdogan has the free markets moving against him and he is more likely to turn to Russia than the West to retain personal power. Nevertheless, he turned to Qatar because he was desperate for money to retain personal power. If he loses the support of his military, then they will side with the people and Erdogan’s head may end up on a spike. Yet, the financial markets are working against Erdogan and as the crisis continues, Turkey can hardly afford military adventures. Many rushed into Turkey and bought their bonds at 20%. Many Spanish banks had capital was invested in Turkish bonds to get the higher yield to the tune of on average 20%+. Based upon the phone calls, there are way too many institutions who invested into Turkey. They simply assumed that NO government defaults because the powers that be will always bail out the bondholders. This time the IMF is really powerless. They can make some noise and others will say the crisis is subsiding. However, this is just talking. There is nobody who can save Turkey at this point as long as Erdogan remains in power. Qatar will discover that Turkey is a bottomless pit. They will try to now ease the crisis with words because of the extensive foolishness of banks and pension funds who bought Turkey bonds to try to get yield. The fall in the Turkish lira has also benefited the Syrian Army, which launched an offensive on the last large mercenary fortress in Idlib. Turkey was actually against the offensive because it feared that it would fall to Syria and that is against Erdogan’s dreams of taking more territory. What is not really looked at internationally is the plain fact that Turkey does not have its own arms industry. Erdogan needs arms to be imported and as the lira crisis materialized, his Turkish operation Olive branch and shield of the Euphrates in Syria become rapidly too expensive. Back in January 2018, the Siyasi Haber newspaper reported that an estimated $400 million was being spent on Operation Olive Branch alone. Erdogan has spent over $1 billion so far in his attempt to conquer that region of Syria. Instead of building his economy and benefiting the people of Turkey, Erdogan has been more interested in resurrecting the Ottoman Empire. It has been his mismanagement of the economy and his hostile attitude even to Greece that is behind the Turkish Lira Crisis. August has been our target for the crisis and so far the computer has been correct on that score. However, volatility will remain high going into October and then we see it will return as the new year begins. Qatar coming to the rescue should help support the lira for now. Those who are wise had better sell their Turkish bonds and step oy of this trade. August should prove to be only a temporary low for the lira.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/turkey/the-crisis-is-turkey/

Bundesbank Demands Explanation for Requests for Cash | Armstrong Economics

Posted on by johnbarleycorn12

The German central bank, the Bundesbank, has significantly expanded its ability to control and access cash transactions in the hunt for taxes. They have required statements and assurances from cash-demanding commercial banks for the purpose of the intended business requiring cash. The Bundesbank has declined to comment on the new policy. The Federal Association of German Banks has also refused to explain. What is clear is that we are witnessing a growing trend to reduce cash and like Australia, just adopt the position that cash is for criminals.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/bundesbank-demands-explanation-for-requests-for-cash/

US Border Seizes $500,000 Inheritance Mailed from Canada to USA | Armstrong Economics

Posted on by johnbarleycorn12

An Ottawa man, David Saikaley, acting as executor of a will obtained a bank draft for $500,000 and mailed it to family members in the United States to settle an estate. Bank checks are regarded as “cash” and the money was seized by customs. Almost a year later, the money is still stuck at the border. This is highlighting the Hunt for Money which has simply gone totally insane. Governments now assume ALL money is illegal gains and they will confiscate 100% forcing the burden to you to PROVE it is yours and was obtained legally. If you are ever going to send money to someone overseas, you can mail a check from your account, but NEVER get a bank check/draft. If you are in the USA and try to wire money to an individual overseas, you will quickly discover the limit is not $10,000, but $3,000. NEVER send anything of value internationally using FedEx. They will be extremely difficult to deal with, to say the least in trying to get things through customs. Even when the valuable item is not subject to tax, they want you to still fill out all sorts of forms to receive it plus give them your Tax ID number so the government will know you just received something worth whatever. As if that is not bad enough internationally, now they want a PHOTO ID just to mail something domestically. What comes next? A DNA sample because the PHOTO ID is a possible fake? Where does all this insanity end? The only way to end this confiscation of money from innocent people is to ELIMINATE income taxes and customs duties. The various governments are becoming so desperate for cash, we are losing ALL our liberty just for the privilege of being born. Whatever happened to the rights that were articulated by Thomas Jefferson: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.”
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/us-border-seizes-500000-inheritance-mailed-from-canada-to-usa/

Government debt has intended consequences

Trade Wars & Rising Interest Rates – The Top Concerns of Fund Managers | Armstrong Economics

Posted on by johnbarleycorn12

The interesting fact is that the majority of fund managers today have reduced their equity allocation to their lowest level since November 2016 according to Reuters. The reason for this is their focus of trade and their assumption that the Great Depression was caused by a PROTECTIONISM. According to yet a recent monthly report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) where they conducted a survey of fund managers, the majority, some 60%, now fear a trade war. Clearly, the biggest concern out there is a trade war poses the greatest risk to the stock market. Another 19% fear excessively higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve. These two perceptions are the dominant reason we see consolidation. However, our computer forecasted the consolidation for 2018 at the start of the year. This has sparked a number of emails asking how was it possible for the computer to forecast consolidation before the fundamentals? What I have noticed over the years in working with this model has been that trends will last ONLY for a specific amount of time. Like being cold all winter and suddenly the sun shines with Spring, we call it “Spring Fever” and everyone runs out at starts doing things when the weather changes. We respond similarly to cycles in markets. They will last only for so long and we get tired. It is NOT that specific fundamental that comes into play and causes the consolidation. Instead, the market trend shifts and people begin to look for explanations to explain it. I have shown charts that demonstrate that rising interest rates are a market myth. The stock market has risen with higher rates and when the market crashes, demand-side economic means they lower rates trying to “stimulate” demand under Keynesianism which has never worked. The ECB has kept rates so low for nearly 10 years and they have destroyed the European bond market as reduced Europe to an economy that is ranked even below China. And as far a trade is concerned, I have shown that Trade Tariffs were a response to the currency and the collapse in agriculture due to the invention of tractors and electricity during the early 20th century. Like the internet today is displacing jobs, electricity reduced the jobs in the manufacture and the combustion engine expanded to tractors reducing employment in agriculture from 40% of the civil workforce to 3% by 1980. Consequently, the computer is forecasting the trend. People try to explain the change in trend and fit the fundamentals to try to explain what took place. I have written before that the book I had to read in school on the Great Crash by Gailbraith, never mention the Sovereign debt crisis of 1931 because he was a socialist who wanted to blame corporations EXCLUSIVELY. Others actually claimed that Hoover embraced the rise of Nazis in Germany because he wanted to trade and ignored Russia. Hitler came to power in 1933 and Hoover lost the election in 1932. They will even alter timelines to support a predetermined conclusion. The trend changes due to cycles for we can only endure a trend for so long before we just want a change as we do in politics. The cycles are not altered by the fundamentals. Commentators fit the fundamentals to explain the cycle. The sharp decline in asset allocation to equities has not been met with a collapse in market prices. This is a very interesting development for the majority NEVER manages to sell the high.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/trade-wars-rising-interest-rates-the-top-concerns-of-fund-managers/

Until We Understand the Real Wealth of a Nation Progress Cannot be Achieved | Armstrong Economics

Posted on by johnbarleycorn12

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Do you have any comment on the latest excuse for the decline in gold is because Trump is forcing it down so he can buy it up and move to gold-backed bonds like Nevada? This is the latest coming from the fringe which just seems so unrealistic any more. I am not sure why these people ignore the past. Thank you; PF ANSWER: The entire issue at its core is this endless desire to eliminate the business cycle. They pitch that ONLY gold is money and if we ret6urn to a gold standard that every evil will be cured. They believe that money must be “tangible” and as such, they fail completely to comprehend the true nature of the economy. If ONLY gold was money, then how did Germany, Japan, and China rise to the economic giants without gold and Russia has floundered ever since 1991 when they had the gold, oil, and diamonds? Kondratieff’s long-wave study observed that the rise and fall of the business cycle existed during the 19th & 20th centuries when the world was on a gold standard. The existence of a gold standard FAILED to eliminate the business cycle and it proved that a “tangible” based monetary system did not make money more valuable than a paper money system. Ironically, ever since 1776, we are still arguing over what is money? Should it be any commodity, paper, some fixed-exchange rate, or is the real wealth of a nation its people and their total capacity to produce? Is this why skilled labor forces and education raise the standard of living of a country than merely farming to grow food to sustain yourself? Julius Caesar said: Divide and Conquer. If the people come together and form interconnected economic bonds, the economy expands because the synergy of everyone collectively is greater than the individual sum of the parts. The true Wealth of a Nation was observed and expressed by Adam Smith in 1776 and nobody has been able to demonstrate anything to the contrary. “Money” is by no means some tangible object or a commodity to be it gold, paper, cattle, slaves, or seashells. The true WEALTH OF A NATION is its people. China, Germany, and Japan lacked the natural resources but their people were its wealth and they produced manufactured goods which they sold to the world and were paid for in return. A country can have tremendous natural resources like Russia, but unless its people are free to develop the economy in their own self-interest, they will never rise to the top ten list of nations. Spain was the classic example. They discovered all this gold and silver in South America. They exploited it, brought it back to Europe, but NEVER developed their own economy. They spend the money lavishly. Unloading the ships was a job for important labor because it was beneath them. The gold joke was that as Spain got rich, everyone else got richer. They used Frenchmen to unload the ships overall. Spain could not wait to spend its money coming in on the next fleet. When fleets sank in hurricanes, they could not pay their debts. Spain became a serial defaulter moving from the richest nation in Europe to a 3rd world status. They defaulted in 1557, 1570, 1575, 1596, 1607, and 1647. So this latest excuse is just absurd. They are unwilling to look at their old theories so they spin wild tales to justify being wrong. Trump is by no means forcing metals to decline so the US government can buy it and issue gold-backed bonds like Nevada. Assemblyman Jim Marchant announced the Nevada Gold and Silver Enabling Act on July 2, 2018. He claimed that gold-backed bonds would avert financial armageddon, retire debt, ensure all creditors are paid in full in nominal terms and begin the process of gold circulation. Here is the argument they use: “The Federal Reserve has a policy of two percent per annum debasement of the US dollar. Other central banks around the world have similar targets, for example, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank set their targets at two percent. Creditors should prefer gold assets over dollar-, pound, and euro-denominated assets because gold is not subject to this debasement. The 10-year Treasury yields 2.9% as I write this. Assuming that the Fed hits its target without overshooting it, then the central bank is robbing the investor of most of their return.” The entire argument assumes that somehow a gold-backed bond will eliminate inflation. Even if we assumed that was correct, you can see what this type of policy would create by creating a money supply that was fixed – it is called deflation. This is what has driven unemployment among the youth in Southern Europe to 60%. Germany has been focused on eliminating inflation because of their experience during the 1920s. This policy of austerity cripples economic growth and will only lead to revolution and civil unrest. Gold-backed debt has existed for hundreds of years. There was still the business cycle, periods of inflation and deflation, as well as revolutions. This theory that someone a gold-backed bond will eliminate the business cycle is actually the same goal of Karl Marx and John Maynard Keynes. Marx proposed Communism and the elimination of all private tangible wealth would produce the perfect world. That failed. Keynes argued that the government could manage the economy by focusing on demand and raise or lower interest rates to also eliminate the business cycle. That failed and even Paul Volcker came out and called it the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle back in 1978. Even Keynes was honest enough to comment before he died that he had been wrong. Smith’s observation of how the economy works remains the only answer. What all of these theories have in common is the assumption that to create money with a tangible value and eliminate the business cycle, the answer lies in manipulating DEMAND side economics rather than the SUPPLY side. In other words, we eliminate all tangible assets or we manipulate interest rates and the supply of money in hopes of influencing the DEMAND of the people. Gold-backed bonds will no more eliminate the business cycle than any other attempt to date. Not even Larry Summer’s NEGATIVE INTEREST rate policy has been successful in stimulating the economy by compelling people to spend rather than save. His theory has merely created the next crisis as pension funds, who needed 8% interest to remain solvent, cannot function with historically low rates of interest and will default bringing socialism into crisis. You must always ask: What is the end goal? It is always the same – ELIMINATE THE BUSINESS CYCLE.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/until-we-understand-the-real-wealth-of-a-nation-progress-cannot-be-achieved/

A must read for an even basic understanding of economics.