Climate Change: Real – Fake – Exaggerated? | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: I find it interesting that you are against human-induced global warming yet you confirm that climate change is natural. You seem to be in the middle of these arguments. You warned that solar activity was declining and there was a risk of going into a mini ice-age, but you did not seem to place high odds on that one. So can you elaborate on this since you seem to be the voice of reason? GR ANSWER: Sunspot activity has declined on schedule. February was an incredible month void of sunspots. This is clearly contributing to the extremely cold weather we are having. Cyclically, between 1645 and 1715, there was a prolonged collapse in sunspot activity known as the Maunder Minimum. Indeed, that was a period where sunspots all but disappeared. This coincided with the “Little Ice Age,” which was a period from 1500 to 1850 in the northern hemisphere. It was so cold, Viking settlers even abandoned Greenland. I have stated many times that a major error in analysis is the attempt to reduce a problem to a single cause and effect. This topic of climate change is no different. Many scientists have strongly suggested that the Maunder Minimum caused the Little Ice Age. As I have shown, correlating everything that took place revealed that during solar minimum there is also an increase in volcanic activity and earthquakes. You will read that scientists seem to be debating between the two rather than comprehending that EVERYTHING is absolutely connected. We cannot reduce everything to a single cause and effect. Therefore, in order for me to confirm that we are heading into a new ice age requires more volcanic activity in addition to a prolonged solar minimum. The sunspot cycle is also called the Schwabe cycle, and currently, we are moving toward the end of cycle 24. It does appear using long-term cycle analysis that cycle 25 will probably be at the very least a quieter cycle than we are concluding here with cycle 24. There’s been this steady decline, so we are indeed heading into what could be a prolonged solar minimum. There have been several protracted solar minimums since 1000 AD: Oort minimum (1040–1080 AD) Medieval Minor minimum (1150–1200 AD) Wolf minimum (1270–1350 AD) Spörer minimum (1430–1520 AD) Maunder minimum (1620–1710 AD) Dalton minimum (1787–1843) This post-Dalton minimum peaked strangely with the Economic Confidence Model on 1989.95. The peaks in solar activity have been declining with each wave subsequent to that turning point. It is now declining faster than ever previously known for nearly the last 10,000 years. Pretend scientists claim climate change is due to human activity. They were predisposed to arrive at that conclusion and not offer legitimate analysis whatsoever. Society expands during warming cycles and contracts during periods of global cooling (see chart above). I have also warned that if next year is colder than the 2018/2019 winter, and if this summer ends up with an expansion of drought, then besides keeping an extra supply of canned goods, the short-term cycle would warn of a further cold period into 2024/2025. The problem here is that if governments can blame humans, then they can tax us. When something is natural, there is no one to tax or blame except Acts of God. So YES, there is always climate change, but humans do not create it. There is far more complexity to this than a single cause and effect. REAL analysis cannot take place when the objective is always to reduce it to a single cause and effect.
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Nothing Can be Reduced to a Single Cause & Effect be it Markets or Nature | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, Thanks for the Socrates forecast. Just a question. What will possibly happen to existing Tropic Belt countries like my region South East Asia when the world is turning into global cooling? Any forecast? Regards, SS ANSWER: I am awaiting their data to run it through and see what comes out. This is what I mean about opinion. How can anyone forecast something without the data? What we do know is also that the Jet Stream moves up and down, so it would make sense that the Tropic Belt would also do the same. The Jet Stream has been dipping as well and creating a very diverse curve pattern. So this produced the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record last year. This is also why you have people who want to claim it is irrelevant if people die of cold in Wales. They argue that since it is warm where they are in Canada, it must prove that Global Warming is real. They are not the brightest bulb in the box. Then we have the Pacific Jet Stream. These people who always try to reduce any effect to a single cause should be barred from any research EVER!!! If you want to understand how interconnected our planet is then you also need to look at and study El Niño. The interconnectivity is similar to all the world financial markets, which create a level of complexity beyond most human’s ability to rationalize. Both the weather system and the financial system function on an extremely high level of complexity. The patterns and events in one place can affect life on the other side of the planet in both systems. Hence, one person will argue it is Global Warming because they happen to be in a hot spot and others are dying in blizzard conditions. I moved to the Tampa area where hopefully the Jet Stream does not bring ice on my windshield. Nevertheless, it has been unseasonably cold here as well and it has even dipped into the 30s at night as far south as Miami. Then we have the real simple minded people who actually believe we would drown if all the ice melted in the Arctic. They have completely forgotten about EVAPORATION. If the ice melted, that water would mix with the Atlantic and Pacific, causing them to become colder. But then the Arctic would be able to evaporate. This is how Ice Ages take place for a very long time because the water returns as snow and that is how the glaciers build. There have been at least five major ice ages in the Earth’s history (the Huronian, Cryogenian, Andean-Saharan, Karoo Ice Age, and the current Quaternary Ice Age). Aside from these ages, the Earth seems to have been ice-free even in high latitudes. This is a historical fact that the Global Warming people ignore. Based upon the data we have gathered, there appears to be a cycle of 430 million years. This agrees with the 8.6-year frequency. The last Ice Age was the Quaternary glaciation, which was actually a series of glacial events separated by interglacial events. This began 2.58 million years ago, so at least according to our models, we have plenty of spare time left in this cycle. However, the ice caps today that the Global Warming people are screaming about are the remnants of that period. There is a bottom to the Arctic ice cap. The Antarctic ice sheet actually began to form earlier (about 34 million years ago) in the mid-Cenozoic to late Cenozoic Ice Age period. That means there have been periods that existed without ANY ice caps. We cannot blame even Egyptians for climate change since civilization did not exist back in those days. This is my problem with the whole Global Warming nonsense being attributed to humans. I would agree if they could show me evidence that such a condition NEVER existed previously before the Industrial Revolution. To me, this is just a cycle and we should respect that the planet if a far more complex system than these idiots put out. NOTHING can ever be reduced to a single cause and effect.
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The weather,science, and unpredictability. JB

Europe Inundated by Snow Down to Greece & Harvard Study Shows Oceans Are Getting Colder | Armstrong Economics

This winter is once again extremely brutal in Europe. Extremely heavy snow has fallen as far south as Greece in the range of even 3 to 5 feet in various places. This is the third year of extreme cold in Europe which has been fueling more resentment about global warming taxes. Once again, Europe has been thrown into economic chaos for much of the region is not able to cope with snow lacking the historical experience. Meanwhile, scientists have revealed that the oceans are still getting colder at deeper levels in a slow-moving trend that was set in motion by the last Little Ice Age. The idea that the oceans have been retaining the heat so that is why the planet has not warmed up as forecast 30 years ago flies in the face of those ideas as well.
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Oops 😬 another inconvenient truth for the climate change/ carbon tax agenda

The Coming Mini Ice Age & Cyclical Movement of the Tropics Belt Itself | Armstrong Economics

We have the most sophisticated and diverse client base than probably any institution covering more than 100 countries. Our business has been constructed upon one bedrock foundation – unbiased computer analysis. These forecasts are NEVER my personal opinion. There are plenty of people who seek to argue but fail to understand it is NOT ME! Just because someone claims to be a scientist and states for or against Global Warming, really does not add up to a lot for just as when you go visit a doctor, they always tell you to get a second “opinion” because that is all you are getting. Previously, I have reported that NASA confirmed we are going into a cooling period – not warming. They have put out a forecast of declining sunspot activity. Now NASA has come out confirming what our computer has been forecasting. They have reported that as the sun is experiencing a rapid decline in sunspots, it is also dimming in brightness or energy output. NASA’s Spaceweather station has recorded during 2017, 96 days (27%) of observing the sun have been completely absent of sunspots. While NASA has now confirmed that the outer atmosphere is getting cooler. In fact, one of the top NASA scientists has broken camp and warned that the surface temperature of the sun has collapsed so much, he fears a new Ice Age is upon us. Meanwhile, this has been the COLDEST Thanksgiving in 150 years! Interestingly, however, is that this sudden sharp decline in the energy output of the sun coincided with the 2015.75 turning point of the Economic Confidence Model. I have previously warned that if this trend continues during the next winter, then we have exceeded any short-term reactionary trend and the weather appears poised to continue to get colder going into the distant future. Socrates was projecting that the peak on this cycle aligned with the ECM 2015.75. This is a Longitudinal Cycle, not Transverse. That means peak to bottom varies. This short-term wave should be a 13-year decline from 2015 making it 2028 initially. After that, if we see colder winters beyond 2028, then the next low will be with the peak in the ECM 2032. There is a SERIOUS RISK that we are looking at the final low coming in during the period of 2046. It appears we are plunging now into a deep mini ice age. There is just no way we can reverse this trend no matter how much the government regulates or increases the taxes. For the next 20 years at a minimum it’s going to get colder and colder on average. There is a very HIGH PROBABILITY that we are declining for 31 years from 2015. What people fail to understand is that the entire weather system of our planet is extremely dynamic. Research has traced the north-south shifts of the northern-most edge of the tropics back 800 years, which was conducted by the University of Arizona-led international team. They have mapped out the fact that the Tropic Belt is also subject to cyclical movement. I have reported that in ancient times, the region we call the Sahara Desert was lush and green and there were cave drawings showing herds of animals in the region. The research has revealed that indeed the Tropic Belt has moved upward and downward over the centuries and the research has documented where it has moved for the last 800 years. The University of Arizona wrote: “From 1568 to 1634, the tropics expanded to the north, the team found. That time period coincides with severe droughts and other disruptions of human societies, including the collapse of the Ottoman empire in Turkey, the end of the Ming Dynasty in China and near abandonment of the Jamestown Colony in Virginia…” The Tropic Belt has been gradually moving northward since 1970. There is debate over what is even causing that. The data we hope to also run through our model to see if that also aligns with the future forecasts on climate change our model has been projecting. This too may be yet another confirming link in the outcome we must face.
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Very idiotic to try to move away from fossil fuels with this trend coming. The carbon taxes will hurt even more, especially the poor and those on fixed incomes

The Absurd Theory of Rising Sea Levels is a Child’s Bedtime Story | Armstrong Economics

QUESTION: Marty I read your daily newsletters as the only source of real news ‘out there’ Fascinated by the report that Canadians are discovering thickening ice cover How do I convince reporters for the much respected ‘Wired’ magazine and the Popular Mechanics website that their constant refrain of ice melts, rising sea levels et al is – well – bonkers I just don’t get why they cannot find time to read the evidence: is there cash in it for them too? I started reading them years ago because I thought they were not part of the Deep State or in the pockets of the establishment – whats going on ? DW ANSWER: The entire theory is really pathetic. If this is a natural event, then the government needs to spend money to help people. If it is caused by humans, then they get to tax people to curb their behavior and save the world? This is no different than war. We invade Iraq on pretended weapons of mass destruction because it is profitable to Cheney and crew, but we do not invade North Korea who has weapons but nothing to profit from. Let’s see. Which one will I choose to get rich? These pretend scientists who are as corrupt as Cheney in my opinion, presume that if the ice melts the sea will rise or they use that statement to make money and scare everyone. They cannot point to anything of that nature taking place in history. They also completely ignore the research of real experts on the oceans and how they function. They ignore the fact that there have been ice ages and warming periods. They fail to comprehend that if the ice melts, that is when it gets colder – NOT WARMER!. The Arctic can then begin to evaporate and that returns as snow building the glaciers. That is HOW ice ages form. These people think that if the ice melts the sea will rise and we all die so raise taxes and they will get endless grants. This is just such an absurd theory it reflects truly childish bedtime stories without a pebble of truth to build a foundation. These clowns have NO idea of how to conduct research. You follow the breadcrumbs. You do not start with a conclusion and then try to prove it. The Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University back in 1956 published A theory of ice ages by Maurice Ewing and William Donn. They were the most influential oceanographers to date, yet the Global Warming people have completely ignored their work and bastardized it for political gain. A warmer Arctic Ocean would mean that water would flow more freely between it and the Atlantic, dissipating the cold making the Atlantic colder. There is the key to an Ice Age. If all the ice melted in the Arctic Ocean leaving open water that was then warmer by mixing with the Atlantic, then a warmer Arctic Ocean surrounded by colder land around it would produce evaporation and that water would then return back to the land in the form of snow. More snow that falls in Greenland and Northern Canada is what makes glaciers grow deeper. When the Arctic Ocean is covered in ice, then there is NO EVAPORATION and thus we do not move into an Ice Age – we get Global Warming which is historically when civilization expands. It is always the same. There is a natural 13-year cycle in red tides. I simply did 15 minutes of research and asked were there any major fish kills before the United States. Up popped many accounts. So I fail to see how these people think. The first thought that runs in their mind is we caused it. They then claim it must be farmers when there were none in the 17th and 18th centuries using chemicals.
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Faux science debunked