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The Turkey Crisis Cannot Be Resolved without Regime Change | Armstrong Economics

Posted on by johnbarleycorn12

The key to understanding Turkey is really simple – Erdogan has lost the confidence of his people and the world. The free-fall in the Turkish lira should be no surprise. After years of rampant dollar borrowing, running large current account deficits in the face of both a lack of domestic military hardware production along with the lack of domestic oil production, throw in an autocratic-dictator with aspiration of empire building who then appoint a family member to bring down interest rates that he thinks is the source of inflation, and presto you get an economic cauldron that is impossible to survive. Erdogan may be a dictator who rigs the elections, but that does NOT mean he can dictate that interest rates should be lower. Interest rates are not the SOURCE of inflation, they are the PRICE of inflation. He thinks that he can order interest rates lower and that will stop his economic crisis. Qatar should just kiss its $15 billion good-bye for there is NO HOPE of saving Turkey without a replacement of Erdogan. He will blame absolutely everyone BUT himself. His attempt to hunt down and prosecute anyone who speaks against him as treason is just a normal reaction of a dictator who has lost his mind. What comes next? Purges as with Stalin?
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/turkey/the-turkey-crisis-cannot-be-resolved-without-regime-change/

California Real Estate Peaks and Begin a Crash | Armstrong Economics

Posted on by johnbarleycorn12

California has joined the states with not just the highest taxes in America, but it has become one of those states that people are just leaving resulting i9n a net outward-migration. There is a logical consequence when a state becomes a place people are trying to flee from – real estate MUST decline in value. Already, sales of both new and existing houses and condominiums in Southern California has declined 11.8% year over year. Prices rallied and reached a record high in 2018. The median price paid for all Southern California homes that were sold in June 2018 was a record high reaching $536,250, according to CoreLogic. This was reported as a 7.3% increase compared to June of 2017. When you see such short-term surges in a market, that is often the sign of how every market peaks. Real estate is no exception. Many have touted for years that California property leads the nation. Therefore, whatever trend appears they will spread to the rest of the nation. While we do not necessarily agree with that statement, nonetheless, real estate will be on the decline in most states where taxes are rising. Property is still going to rise in the 7 states without income tax. For those who are unfamiliar with Socrates, we have created indexes for real estate on a worldwide basis. Here is the page you can view what is available. California may seem to be a leading indicator, but this appears to be with respect to direction only. While Southern California reached record highs in property values in 2018, this appears NOT to be a leading factor, but a lagging one. Our index for the nation as a whole with a limited focus to Residential peaked in August 2016. We have NOT yet elected a Monthly Bearish Reversal. Trump has clearly made a major economic difference. Capital has been returning home and this has helped to create jobs and soften the economic decline in the USA compared to Europe and Asia. This will also have a fundamental backdrop to the dollar.
— Read on www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/california-real-estate-peaks-and-begin-a-crash/